Impact of level and patterns of alcohol drinking on coronary heart disease and stroke burden in Argentina.

BACKGROUND: Deaths from cardiovascular disease (CVD), including coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke are expected to increase in Latin America. Moderate and regular alcohol consumption confers cardiovascular protection, while binge drinking increases risk. We estimated the effects of alcohol use on the number of annual CHD and stroke deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in Argentina. METHODS: Alcohol use data were obtained from a nationally representative survey (EnPreCosp 2011), and etiological effect sizes from meta-analyses of epidemiological studies. Cause-specific mortality rates were from the vital registration system. RESULTS: There were 291,475 deaths in 2010 including 24,893 deaths from CHD and 15,717 from stroke. 62.7% of men and 38.7% of women reported drinking alcohol in the past year. All heavy drinkers (i.e. women who drank >20g/day and men who drank >40g/day of alcohol) met the definition of binge drinking and therefore did not benefit from cardioprotective effects. Alcohol drinking prevented 1,424 CHD deaths per year but caused 935 deaths from stroke (121 ischemic and 814 hemorrhagic), leading to 448 CVD deaths prevented (58.3% in men). Alcohol use was estimated to save 85,772 DALYs from CHD, but was responsible for 52,171 lost from stroke. CONCLUSIONS: In Argentina, the cardioprotective effect of regular and moderate alcohol drinking is slightly larger than the harmful impact of binge drinking on CVD. However, considering global deleterious effects of alcohol in public health, policies to reduce binge drinking should be enforced, especially for young people. Studies are still needed to elucidate effects on cardiovascular health.

Health economic evaluation of Human Papillomavirus vaccines in women from Venezuela by a lifetime Markov cohort model.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer (CC) and genital warts (GW) are a significant public health issue in Venezuela. Our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of the two available vaccines, bivalent and quadrivalent, against Human Papillomavirus (HPV) in Venezuelan girls in order to inform decision-makers. METHODS: A previously published Markov cohort model, informed by the best available evidence, was adapted to the Venezuelan context to evaluate the effects of vaccination on health and healthcare costs from the perspective of the healthcare payer in an 11-year-old girls cohort of 264,489. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were discounted at 5%. Eight scenarios were analyzed to depict the cost-effectiveness under alternative vaccine prices, exchange rates and dosing schemes. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: Compared to screening only, the bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines were cost-saving in all scenarios, avoiding 2,310 and 2,143 deaths, 4,781 and 4,431 CCs up to 18,459 GW for the quadrivalent vaccine and gaining 4,486 and 4,395 discounted QALYs respectively. For both vaccines, the main determinants of variations in the incremental costs-effectiveness ratio after running deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were transition probabilities, vaccine and cancer-treatment costs and HPV 16 and 18 distribution in CC cases. When comparing vaccines, none of them was consistently more cost-effective than the other. In sensitivity analyses, for these comparisons, the main determinants were GW incidence, the level of cross-protection and, for some scenarios, vaccines costs. CONCLUSIONS: Immunization with the bivalent or quadrivalent HPV vaccines showed to be cost-saving or cost-effective in Venezuela, falling below the threshold of one Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (104,404 VEF) per QALY gained. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these results.